Padmavat vs Padman: Why Bhansali chose to stomp on Akshay Kumar's dream film?

By mangoman | 1.6k |

“All that I have to say has already crossed your mind” ----Professor Moriarty
“Then possibly my answer has crossed yours”--Sherlock Holmes


Exactly a year ago we witnessed an Lion vs Tiger clash ! where the numbers ultimately were in favor of the old Lion, not by much and both were a disappointment. Cometh 2018 Republic day, we are going to see something more of an unnecessary bloodbath.

The Buildup: All the Controversies and Politics

I don't need to re-tell what went down with Padmavati or now as renamed Padmavat. The politically charged controversy can be considered the darkest picture in the history of Indian cinema where a film was banned and still getting banned without even seeing it. But somehow, with INR 200 crores investment already done, the makers chose to compromise and heed to CBFC's demands. The film was supposed to release early December 2017, but now it took the slot of Republic day, when two films Padman and Aiyaary were already slotted.
Now you must wonder why both films are releasing on the same day when there are quite a many good windows available in near future?.
Well, competitive dynamics or Game theory has an explanation

Prelude: I know what You Know..

If you found it interesting enough, I believe you would have seen A Beautiful Mind a biopic on Dr. John Nash who came up with an interesting addition to Game theory. In simple words, every decision making involving opponents is like a game where next move is not only dependent on your intelligence but also on your speculations about what competition knows and would do. Choices depend upon actions of others as well as beliefs of actions of others (under uncertainty).

It’s a complex loop where you know that he knows what you know while he may think the same....

It's about strategy and payoffs..

It also depends on your perception of the products both of you have. Here the decision makers are Viacom 18 Pictures and Sony Pictures and their products are Padmavat and Padman respectively. Both the houses will try to act in their best interests given other’s strategy, maximizing their welfare (payoffs) and possibly attain Nash Equilibrium wherein each player’s strategy is the best response to others’ strategies. This game is popularly referred to as Prisoner's Dilemma.

The Best response: Jan 25th vs Feb 02 [Nerd Alert]

While 26th is a Republic day holiday, releasing on it is a strong move beyond just superstition or Ego. Not only it gives access to an extended weekend but also the next big movie is 2 weeks later: Aiyaary
But now since both are releasing on the same day i.e. 25th, the screens are split (though still in favor of Padmavat) and both the films will be eating into each other’s pie.
The moves are explained by the payoff matrix where the possible outcomes are given in each block for the two films for the two release dates.
The payoff as indicated in brackets are just for comparative analysis, an indication and should not be taken as box office numbers.
So should either of them have considered moving to 02/02?

The Choices: What should Viacom/Sony Pictures do?

So there are 4 possible states including the current state:
Both stayed at current release date: As you can see, the payoff i.e. the total earnings is highest for this window given it includes the 25th (as explained above). But the payoff is shared thus reducing the individual share of the pie. Whichever films turns out to be better will enjoy more success though both houses believe that their film is better than the others. Even the loser will be making quite a good moolah since it will enjoy from the initial excitement (the high payoffs (30, 20)).

Padmavat Stayed on 25th while Padman moved: This is the case when Sony/Akshay Kumar don't have higher faith in its product when compared with Padmavat. For instance, it believes that Padmavat will romp the 25th extended weekend and it is no point fighting the elephant. 2nd Feb or some other date will be a safer bet as Padmavat may slow down ( for the lack of good content) giving Padman an open field. It can also demand a better share of screens given Padmavat will be in week 2 of its release and much of its demand would have been satiated by then. But what if Padman turns out to be a better film?; liked more by the masses. Then Padman would be leaving money on the table by releasing a week late since it should not be expected of movie-going families to spend big money on two weekends back to back. But if it turns out to be a bad film, it will be completely run over by Padmavat as was Once upon a time in Mumbai 2 by Chennai Express.

Padmavat moved to 2nd while Padman stayed on 25th: It has the same explanation as above with the roles reversed. It is apparent that it is a losing proposition to move to 2nd Feb when the other is staying back on 25th and since as per dynamics of competition, both sides would have already evaluated the payoffs for all the cases.

Both moved to 2nd Feb:: This case will again be similar as the current conundrum and in this case both are losing money on the table. Also, the upcoming week has Aaiyari and Neeraj Pandey has been on a dream run in recent.
There are no big releases since past few weeks and the audience is hungry to go back to the theatres. It is wiser to go for this 25th/Jan than on 2nd Feb (as shown with higher payoffs).

For Aiyari, it was a wise choice to move to 09th Feb as there was no point to be part of this mess when it was probably the weakest film(Siddharth is a dud) and action-thriller films don't enjoy mass patronage in India.

Final thoughts: Sanity vs Ego/Superstition

Thus we can see why the films are releasing on the same day i.e. 25th. One may argue what’s in the release date and that a good content film shall prevail in the longer run ( Baahubali 2 proved that). But today, most films are front-loaded i.e. they recover most of the money in the initial weekends (given the higher distribution share in favor of distributors).
On a personal note, I believe Padman should have moved to safer release date of Valentines Day weekend or Women's Day given it seems to be romance-women centric film. Also, it seems foolish to release along with a controversial film like Padmavati as the theater closers due to riots will hurt its listing too
Box Office Prediction of Padmavat : Opening weekend : 95cr LT: 210 cr(domestic)
Box Office Prediction of Padman : Opening weekend : 59cr LT: 124 cr(domestic)


Disclaimer: The author is an MBA grad from a premier B school in India and a Film trade analyst. The opinion here is completely personal and does not intend to cause any conflict.
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